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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Gabriel Arias

Gabriel Arias

2B / SS·CLE
Compare
Compare
PA
345
H
66
HR
10
AVG
.210
xwOBA
.305
PPG
0.87
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20261032.200.250.433.233.29237.5%6.3%31.2%2090.90—
2025134471.220
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

345 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
9
.305
xBA
7
.227
.277
.363
.143
.287
34.4%
5.7%
28.7%
11
8
143
1.07
—
202452161.222.256.353.131.27932.9%3.7%29.2%36541.04—
2023106345.210.276.352.142.30532.8%8.1%24.7%103920.87—
20222357.191.321.319.128.29228.1%14.0%14.1%11341.48—
xSLG
27
.408
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
54
89.8
Median EV
68
93.5
90th % EV
74
106.8
Barrel %
59
9.9
Hard-Hit %
72
46.3
Sweet-Spot %
8
31.5
Bat Speed
Avg
82
73.2
Median
79
74.1
90th %
87
79.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
22
33.1
Whiff %
0
35.2
K %
0
32.8
BB %
38
8.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 39th pctl
Chase cost
-26.7r
271 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-9.0r
141 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
55.3%
1,349 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.64
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
15+25%8+41%17432+57%7+48%21+47%15+43%28+42%26+53%17+20%10+80%15-11%38-22%60-9%70+7%40+70%30+59%17+46%24+2%51-23%82-18%62-11%38+32%25+30%10+29%14+30%20+10%41+7%28+15%20+22%91+0%8+0%11+8%12+11%9442CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000