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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Gabriel Arias

Gabriel Arias

2B / SS·CLE
Compare
Compare
PA
471
H
95
HR
11
AVG
.220
xwOBA
.287
PPG
1.07
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20261032.200.250.433.233.29237.5%6.3%31.2%2090.90—
2025134471.220
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

471 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
1
.287
xBA
2
.215
.277
.363
.143
.287
34.4%
5.7%
28.7%
11
8
143
1.07
—
202452161.222.256.353.131.27932.9%3.7%29.2%36541.04—
2023106345.210.276.352.142.30532.8%8.1%24.7%103920.87—
20222357.191.321.319.128.29228.1%14.0%14.1%11341.48—
xSLG
18
.390
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
38
89.5
Median EV
42
92.7
90th % EV
80
107.7
Barrel %
64
11.3
Hard-Hit %
41
43.3
Sweet-Spot %
38
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
90
73.3
Median
89
74.8
90th %
85
79.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
5
38.9
Whiff %
0
37.6
K %
0
34.4
BB %
12
5.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
91
≈ 20th pctl
Chase cost
-43.5r
428 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-8.2r
155 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
57.3%
1,824 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.84
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
53+58%12+38%16+25%8+33%61+67%6+31%16+50%22+43%40+56%25+60%15+6%16+58%19-30%23-20%55-14%64+0%45+67%21+53%15+35%23+2%45-18%65-19%53-9%35+43%28+42%12+35%23+30%44+24%49+20%25-7%15+44%9+0%6+0%6+11%9+11%9+7%1411CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000