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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #57 of 67

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Gabriel Arias
Gabriel Arias · #57
V⁻ -33VORP -22V⁺ -14
Gabriel Arias

Gabriel Arias

2B / 3B / SS·CLE
Compare
Compare
PA
117
H
28
HR
5
AVG
.252
xwOBA
.290
PPG
0.72
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj37159.230.287.376.147.29630.4%6.6%23.9%43551.48—
202636117.252
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

117 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
8
.290
xBA
15
.228
.291
.405
.153
.290
43.6%
5.1%
38.5%
5
4
26
0.72
—
2025134471.220.277.363.143.28734.4%5.7%28.7%1181431.07—
202452161.222.256.353.131.27932.9%3.7%29.2%36541.04—
2023106345.210.276.352.142.30532.8%8.1%24.7%103920.87—
20222357.191.321.319.128.29228.1%14.0%14.1%11341.48—
xSLG
38
.394
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
82
91.5
Median EV
78
95.0
90th % EV
92
109.0
Barrel %
70
11.7
Hard-Hit %
83
48.3
Sweet-Spot %
38
35.0
Bat Speed
Avg
73
72.7
Median
91
75.7
90th %
97
82.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
8
37.5
Whiff %
0
45.4
K %
0
43.6
BB %
5
5.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
109
≈ 81th pctl
Chase cost
-2.2r
27 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.7r
25 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.4%
183 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.17
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
223223+33%6-30%10+38%8335-27%11+0%11-50%8+14%732+14%7-55%11-33%15-37%84+50%8+20%1052111111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 183