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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #7 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Garrett Crochet
Garrett Crochet · #7
V⁻ —VORP 87V⁺ —
Garrett Crochet

Garrett Crochet

SP·BOS
Compare
Compare
BF
138
K %
26.8%
BB %
8.0%
xwOBA
.344
PTS
41
PPG
6.83
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj171799.084003.112.8629.5%6.7%22.8%————25915.23
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

138 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
57
94.1
FB Spin
89
2446
2026
6
6
30.0
3
3
0
0
6.30
4.30
26.8%
8.0%
18.8%
.344
.346
61.0%
37.2%
41
6.83
20253434218.3195002.472.7731.2%5.6%25.6%.267.29185.3%49.3%66319.50
20243332150.7612003.642.7035.1%5.5%29.6%.267.31873.6%45.1%34910.58
202313012.702003.555.5518.8%20.3%-1.5%.385.29781.3%34.2%50.38
202161060.7350142.672.7028.3%11.7%16.6%.287.31874.5%40.4%1572.57
2020606.700010.000.5536.4%0.0%36.4%.178.231100.0%61.5%294.83
Extension
83
6.79
Results
xwOBA
22
.344
Barrel %
19
10.5
Hard-Hit %
12
45.3
K %
86
26.8
BB %
49
8.0
Chase %
42
30.1
Whiff %
59
23.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
98
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
111
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
6.3%
26 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.001 better than avg · 118 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.048
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.018 worse than avg · 25 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 415 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
31.9%90.82606+6.5-2.86.7918.0%52.3%22.4%35.3%41.2%0.418
4-Seam FastballFF
25.7%95.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCFFSISTCH
Usage32%26%24%12%6%
MPH90.895.995.283.588.4
LHP Avg88.193.293.081.084.6
2389
+15.7
+8.8
6.81
18.4%
45.3%
18.6%
36.2%
14.3%
0.322
SinkerSI
24.2%95.22353+8.2+16.16.7923.3%44.4%29.6%20.0%38.5%0.366
SweeperST
12.2%83.52463-2.2-13.76.7023.8%31.7%22.0%42.9%16.7%0.295
ChangeupCH
6.0%88.41848+6.2+13.56.8371.4%20.0%30.0%31.3%20.0%0.000

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″FC · 24″CH · 25″ST · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″SI · 26″FC · 35″CH · 42″ST · 55″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.39′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCFFSISTCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCFFSISTCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCFFSISTCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.