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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #160 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Gavin Lux
Gavin Lux · #60
V⁻ -9VORP -11V⁺ 0
Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

OF·TBR
Compare
Compare
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj40171.243.328.353.110.31022.7%11.0%11.7%21691.73—
2025145505.268.349.373.105.30022.6%11.1%11.5%512311.59—
2024152489.249.320.381
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

No MLB Statcast hitting rows for 2026.

.132
.319
22.5%
9.0%
13.5%
10
6
247
1.63
—
2022141472.275.348.398.123.31620.1%10.0%10.1%672431.72—
2021115381.242.330.364.122.32221.8%10.8%11.0%751911.66—
20202369.175.246.349.174.26227.5%8.7%18.8%31220.96—
20192782.240.305.400.160.34129.3%8.5%20.8%22381.41—
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 43th pctl
Chase cost
-0.3r
4 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.6r
4 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.2%
34 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.60
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12111112532112122111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 34