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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

OF·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
489
H
110
HR
10
AVG
.249
xwOBA
.319
PPG
1.63
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
2025145505.268.349.373.105.30022.6%11.1%11.5%512311.59—
2024152489.249
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

489 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
24
.319
xBA
52
.251
.320
.381
.132
.319
22.5%
9.0%
13.5%
10
6
247
1.63
—
2022141472.275.348.398.123.31620.1%10.0%10.1%672431.72—
2021115381.242.330.364.122.32221.8%10.8%11.0%751911.66—
20202369.175.246.349.174.26227.5%8.7%18.8%31220.96—
20192782.240.305.400.160.34129.3%8.5%20.8%22381.41—
xSLG
15
.387
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
27
88.3
Median EV
29
91.2
90th % EV
23
103.2
Barrel %
19
6.0
Hard-Hit %
46
41.1
Sweet-Spot %
48
35.6
Bat Speed
Avg
38
69.7
Median
35
70.8
90th %
39
75.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
85
23.1
Whiff %
60
20.7
K %
40
22.5
BB %
54
9.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
109
≈ 82th pctl
Chase cost
-27.9r
305 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-15.9r
278 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.2%
1,955 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.24
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+29%7+0%9+0%14+0%13+0%92+29%14+23%26+3%33-6%34+9%33+7%27+0%6+58%26-3%40-27%77-28%64-21%48+33%30+0%11+47%45+10%48-34%61-17%48-3%30+47%17+36%11+23%13+54%13+6%16+42%26+24%17+22%942253222CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000