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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

OF·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
505
H
120
HR
5
AVG
.268
xwOBA
.300
PPG
1.59
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
2025145505.268.349.373.105.30022.6%11.1%11.5%512311.59—
2024152489.249
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

505 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
5
.300
xBA
26
.240
.320
.381
.132
.319
22.5%
9.0%
13.5%
10
6
247
1.63
—
2022141472.275.348.398.123.31620.1%10.0%10.1%672431.72—
2021115381.242.330.364.122.32221.8%10.8%11.0%751911.66—
20202369.175.246.349.174.26227.5%8.7%18.8%31220.96—
20192782.240.305.400.160.34129.3%8.5%20.8%22381.41—
xSLG
1
.332
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
21
88.3
Median EV
17
90.5
90th % EV
7
101.2
Barrel %
6
3.6
Hard-Hit %
18
36.9
Sweet-Spot %
73
38.1
Bat Speed
Avg
13
67.6
Median
13
69.1
90th %
9
73.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
95
19.4
Whiff %
75
18.8
K %
39
22.6
BB %
76
11.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 78th pctl
Chase cost
-25.2r
273 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-21.4r
320 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.9%
2,080 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.24
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
335+11%9+0%11243+30%27+10%31-3%32+0%21+4%26+0%18+26%27-11%45-37%63-30%77-20%61+33%30+8%12+33%27-5%57-26%53-23%61-6%50+39%23+13%8+10%20+40%20+12%17+22%18+24%17+33%634+13%85321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000