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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #40 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams · #40
V⁻ —VORP 29V⁺ —
Gavin Williams

Gavin Williams

SP·CLE
Compare
Compare
BF
346
K %
28.6%
BB %
8.1%
xwOBA
.330
PTS
231
PPG
16.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919108.075003.723.7225.3%9.6%15.6%————22311.75
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
81
95.7
FB Spin
28
2190
Extension
2026
14
14
86.7
9
3
0
0
3.32
3.80
28.6%
8.1%
20.5%
.330
.261
79.7%
46.8%
231
16.50
20253333178.7136002.874.1524.6%11.8%12.8%.323.26083.7%46.1%41912.70
2024171778.3310005.063.8123.8%9.6%14.2%.319.30766.7%40.8%885.18
2023161682.035003.293.8923.4%10.7%12.7%.319.27078.3%38.6%1549.63
90
6.89
Results
xwOBA
40
.330
Barrel %
5
12.5
Hard-Hit %
4
48.1
K %
92
28.6
BB %
48
8.1
Chase %
86
33.8
Whiff %
89
28.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
101
≈ 55th pctl
Stuff+
115
if they swing
Command+
92
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.3%
36 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.043
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.001 worse than avg · 136 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.023
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.006 better than avg · 37 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 433 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
28.5%96.72276+15.0+11.87.0327.7%42.9%25.7%25.0%21.9%0.422
SweeperST
24.7%86.8

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTFCCUSI
Usage28%25%17%15%14%
MPH96.786.892.283.095.9
RHP Avg95.083.389.880.294.3
2274
-0.5
-9.9
6.90
39.5%
35.2%
28.6%
30.5%
21.2%
0.328
CutterFC
17.3%92.22248+6.9+3.07.0021.9%57.8%32.8%29.6%27.3%0.354
CurveballCU
15.4%83.02466-14.1-10.36.7030.0%28.1%24.6%48.8%23.3%0.116
SinkerSI
14.1%95.92031+9.3+17.07.0711.8%59.6%36.5%9.5%45.5%0.303

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FC · 22″SI · 21″ST · 28″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 22″FC · 32″SI · 22″ST · 43″CU · 56″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.38′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTFCCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTFCCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTFCCUSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.