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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #38 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150George Kirby
George Kirby · #38
V⁻ —VORP 32V⁺ —
George Kirby

George Kirby

SP·SEA
Compare
Compare
BF
323
K %
19.8%
BB %
5.6%
xwOBA
.296
PTS
133
PPG
10.23
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020110.086003.563.3722.8%5.0%17.7%————23211.59
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
88
96.5
FB Spin
54
2278
Extension
2026
13
13
78.0
5
5
0
0
4.04
3.39
19.8%
5.6%
14.2%
.296
.323
69.4%
53.1%
133
10.23
20252727144.0109004.443.4826.0%5.5%20.5%.306.31971.0%44.4%27810.30
20243434197.01511003.473.1422.9%2.9%20.0%.291.28971.7%42.8%43712.85
20233332196.71410003.293.1122.7%2.5%20.2%.305.29074.9%44.6%45113.67
20223027145.786113.403.0224.5%4.1%20.4%.287.32975.8%46.3%32010.67
67
6.63
Results
xwOBA
78
.296
Barrel %
92
5.0
Hard-Hit %
39
41.4
K %
36
19.8
BB %
89
5.6
Chase %
94
35.4
Whiff %
30
20.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
113
≈ 90th pctl
Stuff+
96
if they swing
Command+
114
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
98
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.7%
39 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 122 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.014
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.015 better than avg · 20 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 446 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
38.0%96.62203+13.5+8.96.6117.0%54.3%20.7%43.8%22.2%0.281
SliderSL
20.4%86.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLSIKCCHFC
Usage38%20%17%13%9%3%
MPH96.686.596.983.788.592.4
RHP Avg95.086.794.383.086.989.8
2322
-4.7
-12.6
6.61
22.2%
53.3%
36.0%
40.0%
20.8%
0.290
SinkerSI
16.8%96.92240+7.4+17.06.643.3%56.5%25.8%29.6%29.4%0.308
Knuckle CurveKC
13.0%83.72330-14.0-9.76.6613.6%33.3%14.6%31.3%0.0%0.214
ChangeupCH
8.7%88.51584+5.2+14.96.7525.0%40.6%25.0%21.1%25.0%0.234
CutterFC
3.0%92.42281+10.5+0.16.650.0%36.4%18.2%28.6%0.0%0.085

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″FC · 20″SI · 18″CH · 22″SL · 25″KC · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″FC · 30″SI · 21″CH · 41″SL · 47″KC · 54″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.35′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLSIKCCHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLSIKCCHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLSIKCCHFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.