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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Germán Márquez

Germán Márquez

SP·SDP
Compare
Compare
BF
129
K %
14.7%
BB %
9.3%
xwOBA
.367
PTS
32
PPG
5.33
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj13534.023005.004.8617.0%8.2%8.8%————372.82
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

129 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
58
94.1
FB Spin
16
2145
2026
6
6
29.7
3
2
0
0
5.76
6.64
14.7%
9.3%
5.4%
.367
.261
76.2%
33.3%
32
5.33
20252828135.7416006.635.5514.0%8.1%5.9%.368.33462.1%36.9%40.14
2024114.000006.757.8515.0%20.0%-5.0%.385.33378.9%46.2%00.00
20235526.032004.154.1021.0%3.7%17.3%.343.24672.2%51.7%5811.60
20223434193.31013004.794.5119.2%8.1%11.1%.332.29468.9%48.6%2657.79
20213534189.01212004.483.8323.2%8.5%14.7%.315.29769.2%52.8%3319.46
2020131381.746003.753.1921.2%7.3%13.9%.315.30065.5%50.8%13710.54
20192929177.0125004.683.8924.2%4.8%19.4%.330.30268.2%50.2%35612.28
20183434201.01412003.763.3628.2%7.0%21.2%.287.31473.7%48.5%43612.82
20173130171.0127014.374.2821.0%7.0%14.0%.326.31675.8%46.8%2969.55
Extension
0
5.23
Results
xwOBA
8
.367
Barrel %
21
10.4
Hard-Hit %
9
45.8
K %
6
14.7
BB %
30
9.3
Chase %
3
24.0
Whiff %
13
17.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
95
≈ 29th pctl
Stuff+
95
if they swing
Command+
105
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
88
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
14.9%
48 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.003 better than avg · 101 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.035
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.005 worse than avg · 30 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 323 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
Knuckle CurveKC
40.7%85.72588+1.4-0.95.2428.0%46.5%24.2%30.2%16.7%0.279
4-Seam FastballFF
39.1%94.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE39°100 PITCHSAMPLE
KCFFSISLCH
Usage41%39%13%5%2%
MPH85.794.393.688.185.8
RHP Avg83.095.094.386.786.9
2162
+15.6
+12.9
5.28
20.5%
53.7%
29.5%
18.2%
10.0%
0.451
SinkerSI
13.2%93.62132+12.2+15.85.336.3%56.3%15.6%14.3%0.0%0.413
SliderSL
5.3%88.12240+7.0+0.75.3833.3%46.2%30.8%42.9%0.0%0.117
ChangeupCH
1.6%85.81485+6.3+13.35.430.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″CH · 19″SI · 20″SL · 22″KC · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″CH · 46″SI · 31″SL · 42″KC · 51″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.18′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
KCFFSISLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
KCFFSISLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
KCFFSISLCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.