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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #41 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole · #41
V⁻ —VORP 25V⁺ —
Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole

SP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
89
K %
20.2%
BB %
6.7%
xwOBA
.269
PTS
49
PPG
12.25
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020119.075003.923.8823.1%7.1%16.0%————23611.78
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

89 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
90
96.7
FB Spin
66
2325
2026
4
4
22.0
1
1
0
0
2.45
4.19
20.2%
6.7%
13.5%
.269
.230
90.9%
30.2%
49
12.25
20242222124.095003.123.5025.4%7.4%18.0%.301.27774.3%38.3%28312.86
20233535215.7154002.592.9827.0%5.8%21.2%.289.26180.4%40.3%60317.23
20223838224.3159003.533.5332.3%6.3%26.0%.291.27077.7%42.0%58515.39
20213333194.0179003.202.9533.5%5.6%27.9%.272.30179.2%42.7%54816.61
2020151591.393002.863.7432.6%5.9%26.7%.273.24588.0%37.7%29319.53
20193939254.3246002.442.5739.8%5.9%33.9%.238.26984.0%40.7%86522.18
20183535216.7176002.912.5834.5%8.0%26.5%.272.28977.0%37.6%64418.40
20173434206.01213004.334.1923.0%6.5%16.5%.318.29675.2%46.6%35510.44
20162222120.7710003.883.2619.3%7.1%12.2%.312.35171.6%47.8%1747.91
Extension
28
6.25
Results
xwOBA
93
.269
Barrel %
93
4.8
Hard-Hit %
98
30.2
K %
40
20.2
BB %
74
6.7
Chase %
65
32.0
Whiff %
3
14.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
139
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
86
if they swing
Command+
127
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.7%
2 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.006
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.036 better than avg · 12 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
—
RV per pitch · league 0.029
— on avg · 0 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 26 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.