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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #69 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Graham Ashcraft
Graham Ashcraft · #60
V⁻ —VORP -21V⁺ —
Graham Ashcraft

Graham Ashcraft

RP·CIN
Compare
Compare
BF
110
K %
29.1%
BB %
14.5%
xwOBA
.291
PTS
85
PPG
3.27
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj14014.011003.733.3322.8%8.6%14.2%————261.84
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

110 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
97
98.0
FB Spin
98
2558
2026
26
0
27.0
1
1
1
10
3.33
3.47
29.1%
14.5%
14.6%
.291
.254
72.8%
54.1%
85
3.27
202565070.3850243.712.7222.5%8.8%13.7%.291.33063.7%58.5%1872.88
2024161683.055005.104.6416.3%7.7%8.6%.350.31268.1%49.2%945.88
20232727151.789004.574.7017.8%8.3%9.5%.340.28874.4%48.0%2168.00
20222020108.056004.834.1815.3%6.5%8.8%.314.30967.8%54.6%1266.30
Extension
2
5.56
Results
xwOBA
82
.291
Barrel %
76
6.6
Hard-Hit %
79
36.1
K %
94
29.1
BB %
0
14.5
Chase %
81
33.3
Whiff %
97
30.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
117
≈ 96th pctl
Stuff+
122
if they swing
Command+
108
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
122
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.0%
10 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.027
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.016 better than avg · 57 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.006 worse than avg · 13 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 199 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
55.0%98.32557+12.6-0.45.5223.1%50.5%27.3%32.7%11.1%0.365
SliderSL
45.0%91.62914

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE54°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCSL
Usage55%45%
MPH98.391.6
RHP Avg89.886.7
+0.8
-7.0
5.53
48.6%
44.4%
38.3%
35.6%
35.7%
0.113

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 21″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 17″SL · 38″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.37′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.