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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #34 of 41

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Graham Pauley
Graham Pauley · #34
V⁻ —VORP -8V⁺ —
Graham Pauley

Graham Pauley

3B·MIA
Compare
Compare
PA
91
H
14
HR
1
AVG
.165
xwOBA
.190
PPG
0.77
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj2293.219.291.356.137.29121.4%8.4%13.0%21391.79—
20263191.165
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

91 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.190
xBA
0
.150
.211
.271
.106
.190
24.2%
5.5%
18.7%
1
1
24
0.77
—
202558185.222.311.364.142.30019.5%11.4%8.1%42801.38—
20241532.125.125.313.188.21446.9%0.0%46.9%2070.47—
xSLG
0
.223
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
1
82.6
Median EV
1
85.3
90th % EV
4
99.2
Barrel %
7
3.1
Hard-Hit %
1
18.8
Sweet-Spot %
6
29.7
Bat Speed
Avg
42
69.8
Median
51
72.0
90th %
38
75.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
77
25.1
Whiff %
54
20.6
K %
28
24.2
BB %
10
5.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 77th pctl
Chase cost
-2.4r
31 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.0r
37 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.2%
199 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.23
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2231111+18%11+8%13+17%6+0%6224-17%12-36%11-50%14-46%1352+57%75-17%12-30%10-31%13413+29%722211211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 199