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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #103 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Grant Holmes
Grant Holmes · #60
V⁻ —VORP -23V⁺ —
Grant Holmes

Grant Holmes

SP·ATL
Compare
Compare
BF
269
K %
21.2%
BB %
10.0%
xwOBA
.333
PTS
120
PPG
9.23
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj261282.044004.274.0622.4%9.3%13.2%————1375.28
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
53
93.9
FB Spin
71
2347
Extension
2026
13
13
66.7
4
2
0
0
4.05
5.26
21.2%
10.0%
11.2%
.333
.255
82.4%
42.4%
120
9.23
20252221115.049003.994.3624.9%11.0%13.9%.331.28878.6%45.8%1878.50
202426768.321013.563.1324.8%5.3%19.5%.298.31476.5%44.1%1475.65
12
6.01
Results
xwOBA
35
.333
Barrel %
21
10.3
Hard-Hit %
9
46.2
K %
46
21.2
BB %
19
10.0
Chase %
83
33.5
Whiff %
83
26.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
94
≈ 27th pctl
Stuff+
116
if they swing
Command+
93
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.4%
33 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.053
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.010 worse than avg · 101 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.003
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.026 better than avg · 29 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 395 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SliderSL
41.1%85.62757-4.6-1.95.9753.3%27.5%38.2%40.0%26.1%0.275
4-Seam FastballFF
38.6%94.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SLFFCUSICHFC
Usage41%39%8%8%3%2%
MPH85.694.683.893.589.591.6
RHP Avg86.795.080.294.386.989.8
2342
+15.7
+6.4
5.92
13.3%
61.8%
22.0%
12.8%
16.0%
0.305
CurveballCU
7.8%83.82788-8.9-2.85.926.7%60.0%12.0%20.0%20.0%0.230
SinkerSI
7.8%93.52287+7.0+14.46.0014.3%48.0%28.0%15.4%0.0%0.369
ChangeupCH
3.1%89.51415+3.4+14.15.940.0%10.0%0.0%22.2%0.0%0.198
CutterFC
1.6%91.62420+12.5+1.25.8433.3%20.0%20.0%50.0%—0.296

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″FC · 22″SI · 22″SL · 26″CH · 24″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″FC · 31″SI · 30″SL · 47″CH · 38″CU · 53″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.03′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SLFFCUSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SLFFCUSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SLFFCUSICHFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.