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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #97 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Griffin Jax
Griffin Jax · #60
V⁻ —VORP -26V⁺ —
Griffin Jax

Griffin Jax

SP / RP·TBR
Compare
Compare
BF
165
K %
21.8%
BB %
10.9%
xwOBA
.351
PTS
51
PPG
2.68
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj221361.053003.453.2227.2%8.4%18.8%————1426.47
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

165 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
80
95.6
FB Spin
97
2537
2026
19
8
39.0
1
4
0
2
4.15
4.97
21.8%
10.9%
10.9%
.351
.291
68.6%
48.2%
51
2.68
202575267.3270284.142.4535.0%7.4%27.6%.288.36970.3%46.6%1862.48
202473071.75510242.011.8934.4%5.4%29.0%.247.26477.1%52.1%3144.30
202377071.06104253.552.8624.8%6.9%17.9%.266.29069.7%56.8%2052.66
202267075.0751184.083.2526.9%6.9%20.0%.289.28066.1%46.0%2043.04
2021191585.045006.146.3218.1%8.1%10.0%.364.25466.4%32.2%834.37
Extension
38
6.38
Results
xwOBA
18
.351
Barrel %
24
10.0
Hard-Hit %
65
38.2
K %
51
21.8
BB %
13
10.9
Chase %
58
31.5
Whiff %
90
27.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
91
≈ 19th pctl
Stuff+
127
if they swing
Command+
74
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
119
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
4.1%
6 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.058
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.015 worse than avg · 41 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.017
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.013 better than avg · 12 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 147 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SweeperST
34.5%88.73023-1.1-11.46.3933.3%52.0%36.0%25.0%13.3%0.353
ChangeupCH
20.7%92.11951

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE42°100 PITCHSAMPLE
STCHFFSICU
Usage34%21%19%18%8%
MPH88.792.196.796.686.5
RHP Avg83.386.995.094.380.2
+4.7
+16.5
6.45
30.8%
30.0%
20.0%
38.1%
0.0%
0.366
4-Seam FastballFF
18.6%96.72505+16.8+6.96.4515.4%48.1%18.5%21.4%12.5%0.568
SinkerSI
17.9%96.62501+11.2+16.36.4516.7%50.0%23.1%23.1%0.0%0.482
CurveballCU
8.3%86.53002-11.7-3.96.4340.0%25.0%25.0%33.3%33.3%0.000

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″SI · 18″ST · 22″CH · 22″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″SI · 25″ST · 43″CH · 34″CU · 49″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.96′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
STCHFFSICU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
STCHFFSICU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
STCHFFSICU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.