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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader

OF·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
503
H
124
HR
17
AVG
.276
xwOBA
.297
PPG
1.67
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202630111.170.200.358.188.27230.6%3.6%27.0%50321.07—
2025144503.276
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

503 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
5
.297
xBA
1
.212
.348
.447
.171
.297
27.0%
7.8%
19.2%
17
12
241
1.67
—
2024142437.236.288.373.137.30021.7%4.8%16.9%12202181.54—
202393345.231.276.347.116.28817.1%4.9%12.2%7181731.86—
2022102314.249.295.355.106.27319.7%4.8%14.9%5181981.94—
2021105402.266.325.459.193.29721.1%6.7%14.4%1692232.12—
202047125.226.339.443.217.32332.0%10.4%21.6%43591.26—
2019134408.203.314.364.161.31928.7%11.3%17.4%12121771.32—
2018131428.263.336.421.158.28929.2%7.2%22.0%12151971.50—
20173692.235.286.376.141.30426.1%5.4%20.7%33431.19—
xSLG
7
.364
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
14
87.2
Median EV
16
90.4
90th % EV
60
106.3
Barrel %
54
10.2
Hard-Hit %
27
40.3
Sweet-Spot %
31
34.9
Bat Speed
Avg
67
71.6
Median
66
73.1
90th %
72
78.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
18
32.6
Whiff %
24
26.5
K %
9
27.0
BB %
39
7.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
90
≈ 15th pctl
Chase cost
-40.9r
399 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-16.5r
311 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.5%
1,981 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.90
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12231315+30%10+4%26+7%30+29%1434+43%23+3%34-36%66-31%52+3%38+54%24+33%6+37%27-16%44-33%75-26%61-11%45+69%26+33%9+40%20+37%43+29%45+30%43+44%25+65%17+13%8+17%6+20%15+31%16+7%14+17%6+0%6+0%6CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000