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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #17 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Hunter Brown
Hunter Brown · #17
V⁻ —VORP 69V⁺ —
Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown

SP·HOU
Compare
Compare
BF
43
K %
39.5%
BB %
14.0%
xwOBA
.215
PTS
41
PPG
20.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1717101.084003.383.2326.7%8.2%18.4%————23914.09
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

43 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
84
96.0
FB Spin
50
2267
2026
2
2
10.7
1
0
0
0
0.84
1.60
39.5%
14.0%
25.5%
.215
.250
90.9%
50.0%
41
20.50
20253232189.01210002.623.1628.2%7.8%20.4%.278.26780.3%48.1%48215.06
20243332180.0129003.353.4625.0%8.4%16.6%.287.30477.7%48.5%38911.79
20233529162.71113014.984.1926.6%8.2%18.4%.319.32869.4%52.2%2657.57
202212429.730020.912.5627.2%8.6%18.6%.263.27091.2%64.7%978.08
Extension
81
6.75
Results
xwOBA
100
.215
Barrel %
100
0.0
Hard-Hit %
99
30.0
K %
100
39.5
BB %
1
14.0
Chase %
1
23.0
Whiff %
81
26.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
113
≈ 90th pctl
Stuff+
108
if they swing
Command+
97
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
111
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.0%
21 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.005 better than avg · 83 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.015
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.015 better than avg · 20 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 263 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
32.8%95.82208+13.1+14.96.769.5%55.9%32.2%19.2%37.5%0.280
4-Seam FastballFF
31.1%96.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE54°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFFKCSLCH
Usage33%31%22%7%7%
MPH95.896.383.590.087.8
RHP Avg94.395.083.086.786.9
2329
+17.9
+7.5
6.76
22.7%
55.4%
28.6%
16.0%
29.4%
0.204
Knuckle CurveKC
22.2%83.52536-16.2-5.96.7038.9%42.5%35.0%39.1%36.4%0.148
SliderSL
7.2%90.02316+3.0-3.96.7420.0%38.5%15.4%12.5%16.7%0.137
ChangeupCH
6.7%87.81552+7.7+15.36.7857.1%58.3%41.7%20.0%0.0%0.434

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 18″CH · 22″SL · 25″KC · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″SI · 25″CH · 44″SL · 38″KC · 56″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.60′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFFKCSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFFKCSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFFKCSLCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.