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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Ildemaro Vargas

Ildemaro Vargas

1B / 2B·ARI
Compare
Compare
BF
10
K %
0.0%
BB %
10.0%
xwOBA
.528
PTS
1
PPG
0.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2024202.000004.5011.100.0%0.0%0.0%.424.286115.4%37.5%10.50
2023 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

10 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
2023
2
0
2.0
0
0
0
0
4.50
12.60
0.0%
10.0%
-10.0%
.528
.143
115.4%
50.0%
1
0.50
2022101.000000.003.100.0%0.0%0.0%.248.000—66.7%33.00
Extension
0
5.05
Results
xwOBA
0
.528
Barrel %
1
12.5
Hard-Hit %
0
62.5
K %
0
0.0
BB %
13
10.0
Chase %
36
27.8
Whiff %
0
0.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-17
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
-5
if they swing
Command+
77
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
28
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
46.4%
13 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.089
RV per pitch · league 0.048
+0.042 worse than avg · 2 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.066
RV per pitch · league 0.030
+0.035 worse than avg · 5 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 28 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
EephusEP
82.1%46.41054+16.5+3.75.040.0%26.1%13.0%23.5%0.0%0.391
OtherFA
14.3%70.21658

2023 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE45°100 PITCHSAMPLE
EPFACS
Usage82%14%4%
MPH46.470.257.9
RHP Avg48.167.4—
+11.8
+9.2
5.13
0.0%
75.0%
25.0%
100.0%
—
0.856
Slow CurveCS
3.6%57.91717-2.2-5.65.100.0%100.0%0.0%———

2023 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTCS · 15″EP · 14″FA · 16″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′CS · 116″EP · 144″FA · 85″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (6.54′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2023 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
EPFACS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
EPFACS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
EPFACS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.