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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Ildemaro Vargas

Ildemaro Vargas

1B / 2B·ARI
Compare
Compare
BF
9
K %
0.0%
BB %
0.0%
xwOBA
.424
PTS
1
PPG
0.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2024202.000004.5011.100.0%0.0%0.0%.424.286115.4%37.5%10.50
2024 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

9 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
2023
2
0
2.0
0
0
0
0
4.50
12.60
0.0%
10.0%
-10.0%
.528
.143
115.4%
50.0%
1
0.50
2022101.000000.003.100.0%0.0%0.0%.248.000—66.7%33.00
Extension
0
5.18
Results
xwOBA
0
.424
Barrel %
1
12.5
Hard-Hit %
0
50.0
K %
0
0.0
BB %
100
0.0
Chase %
100
40.0
Whiff %
0
8.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-59
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
20
if they swing
Command+
64
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
-14
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
47.8%
11 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.144
RV per pitch · league 0.046
+0.098 worse than avg · 2 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.104
RV per pitch · league 0.031
+0.073 worse than avg · 2 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 23 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
EephusEP
52.2%37.2853+22.1+3.05.260.0%33.3%8.3%37.5%0.0%0.499
OtherFA
34.8%70.21707

2024 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
EPFACS
Usage52%35%13%
MPH37.270.257.2
RHP Avg—67.9—

2024 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFA · 13″EP · 13″CS · 16″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FA · 85″EP · 170″CS · 118″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (7.29′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2024 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
EPFACS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
EPFACS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
EPFACS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.

+11.4
+10.8
5.11
0.0%
50.0%
12.5%
25.0%
0.0%
0.223
Slow CurveCS
13.0%57.21672-1.2-6.05.0750.0%0.0%33.3%66.7%—0.393