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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jace Peterson

Jace Peterson

SS·FA
Compare
Compare
BF
12
K %
8.3%
BB %
25.0%
xwOBA
.575
PTS
-3
PPG
-1.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2023202.000009.0013.108.3%25.0%-16.7%.575.28687.0%0.0%-3-1.50
2023 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

12 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
2022
1
0
1.0
0
0
0
0
0.00
3.10
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
.216
.000
—
66.7%
3
3.00
2021202.000009.002.6018.2%9.1%9.1%.370.50060.0%50.0%-1-0.50
2018101.0000036.0014.1012.5%0.0%12.5%.649.83343.5%42.9%-10-10.00
Extension
0
5.10
Results
xwOBA
0
.575
Barrel %
0
25.0
Hard-Hit %
0
62.5
K %
0
8.3
BB %
0
25.0
Chase %
0
20.8
Whiff %
0
0.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-164
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
-62
if they swing
Command+
91
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
-119
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
69.8%
30 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.115
RV per pitch · league 0.048
+0.067 worse than avg · 12 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.113
RV per pitch · league 0.030
+0.083 worse than avg · 6 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 43 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
EephusEP
97.7%56.31126+21.4-8.95.100.0%45.2%26.2%21.7%9.1%0.574
OtherFA
2.3%74.91475

2023 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE47°100 PITCHSAMPLE
EPFA
Usage98%2%
MPH56.374.9
RHP Avg48.167.4
+15.2
+8.4
5.20
—
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
—

2023 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFA · 14″EP · 16″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FA · 74″EP · 121″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (5.89′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2023 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
EPFA

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.