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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #67 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty · #60
V⁻ —VORP 0V⁺ —
Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty

SP·DET
Compare
Compare
BF
293
K %
26.3%
BB %
11.3%
xwOBA
.334
PTS
62
PPG
4.43
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181890.066004.073.7925.5%9.1%16.4%————1719.51
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
30
92.4
FB Spin
42
2241
Extension
2026
14
14
62.7
1
7
0
0
5.31
4.12
26.3%
11.3%
15.0%
.334
.341
63.6%
33.1%
62
4.43
20253534177.0816004.423.7827.6%8.7%18.9%.311.30271.3%37.1%2988.51
20243434188.7149003.633.6929.9%5.9%24.0%.296.28877.6%40.2%44513.09
20233229154.7810015.184.2422.8%10.2%12.6%.345.36171.7%43.0%1825.69
20229836.021004.254.9619.8%13.2%6.6%.351.31178.4%44.9%546.00
2021191786.793003.224.0926.3%8.0%18.3%.339.24173.3%40.0%22812.00
2020101046.344004.473.6828.8%9.4%19.4%.340.29571.7%45.1%939.30
20193737217.31210002.823.2829.9%7.1%22.8%.281.24982.3%40.7%57015.41
20182928153.7810003.343.8229.6%9.6%20.0%.282.25479.5%43.3%35512.24
20177625.302005.335.0321.1%10.5%10.6%.339.31972.7%49.2%182.57
55
6.55
Results
xwOBA
32
.334
Barrel %
38
9.0
Hard-Hit %
3
48.3
K %
82
26.3
BB %
12
11.3
Chase %
12
26.5
Whiff %
66
24.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
81
≈ 3th pctl
Stuff+
106
if they swing
Command+
77
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.7%
47 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.059
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.017 worse than avg · 113 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.006 worse than avg · 46 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 441 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
44.6%92.92269+16.2+6.16.6816.1%55.3%27.3%12.5%33.3%0.328
SliderSL
25.2%85.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE26°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLKCSICH
Usage45%25%19%7%4%
MPH92.985.078.491.085.0
RHP Avg95.086.783.094.386.9
2425
+2.8
-5.9
6.60
20.6%
41.8%
28.6%
22.6%
8.7%
0.427
Knuckle CurveKC
19.4%78.42406-9.0-11.26.5739.3%25.7%25.7%26.9%12.5%0.336
SinkerSI
6.6%91.02108+9.7+13.86.7537.5%37.5%29.2%20.0%—0.031
ChangeupCH
4.2%85.01769+7.8+14.36.790.0%0.0%0.0%20.0%—0.743

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 21″SL · 25″CH · 23″KC · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″SI · 36″SL · 48″CH · 49″KC · 66″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.86′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLKCSICH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLKCSICH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLKCSICH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.