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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #164 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Jack Kochanowicz
Jack Kochanowicz · #60
V⁻ —VORP -85V⁺ —
Jack Kochanowicz

Jack Kochanowicz

SP·LAA
Compare
Compare
BF
296
K %
15.9%
BB %
12.2%
xwOBA
.360
PTS
35
PPG
2.69
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj261591.046004.824.5914.6%9.3%5.4%————893.43
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
83
95.9
FB Spin
28
2193
Extension
2026
13
13
64.0
2
5
0
0
6.19
4.98
15.9%
12.2%
3.7%
.360
.289
61.3%
57.2%
35
2.69
20252424118.0312006.565.9614.0%11.3%2.7%.372.31265.4%52.5%140.58
2024111165.326003.994.559.4%3.8%5.6%.349.28273.5%56.5%655.91
31
6.33
Results
xwOBA
11
.360
Barrel %
67
7.2
Hard-Hit %
31
42.8
K %
12
15.9
BB %
6
12.2
Chase %
7
25.5
Whiff %
56
22.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 80th pctl
Stuff+
104
if they swing
Command+
102
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.4%
39 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 114 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.015
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.014 better than avg · 36 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 417 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
35.2%95.92149+4.7+13.96.3413.4%55.0%22.1%28.8%7.7%0.414
ChangeupCH
27.2%90.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE36°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICHFFSL
Usage35%27%22%16%
MPH95.990.296.386.8
RHP Avg94.386.995.086.7
2177
+0.7
+10.7
6.40
38.0%
51.5%
30.7%
26.5%
28.6%
0.272
4-Seam FastballFF
21.8%96.32303+14.5+7.36.3316.1%43.2%30.9%28.3%20.7%0.322
SliderSL
15.9%86.82835-4.4-4.66.2842.9%45.8%37.3%12.5%20.0%0.495

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″SL · 24″SI · 24″CH · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 23″SL · 49″SI · 23″CH · 37″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.35′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICHFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICHFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICHFFSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.