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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #102 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Jack Leiter
Jack Leiter · #60
V⁻ —VORP -23V⁺ —
Jack Leiter

Jack Leiter

SP·TEX
Compare
Compare
BF
310
K %
24.5%
BB %
10.0%
xwOBA
.335
PTS
109
PPG
8.38
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181895.066004.204.1623.0%9.7%13.3%————1669.22
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
82
95.9
FB Spin
88
2440
Extension
2026
13
13
71.0
3
5
0
0
4.69
4.45
24.5%
10.0%
14.5%
.335
.287
73.3%
38.7%
109
8.38
20253030157.71010003.884.0522.9%10.4%12.5%.327.27974.8%37.8%2839.43
202410638.304008.695.5817.9%9.8%8.1%.380.33148.4%38.8%-9-0.90
68
6.64
Results
xwOBA
30
.335
Barrel %
14
11.1
Hard-Hit %
48
40.7
K %
68
24.5
BB %
19
10.0
Chase %
37
29.6
Whiff %
67
24.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
110
≈ 84th pctl
Stuff+
104
if they swing
Command+
107
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.5%
41 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.033
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.009 better than avg · 131 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.008
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.037 better than avg · 30 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 431 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
36.8%96.72443+17.7+7.86.6721.9%48.6%26.1%25.4%11.4%0.429
ChangeupCH
23.5%90.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE47°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLCUFCSI
Usage37%23%17%8%8%7%
MPH96.790.186.581.892.696.2
RHP Avg95.086.986.780.289.894.3
1433
+3.4
+12.8
6.56
38.3%
45.5%
30.7%
35.4%
15.2%
0.417
SliderSL
17.1%86.52607-1.1-3.56.5042.9%45.3%40.6%37.1%35.0%0.286
CurveballCU
8.0%81.82674-12.4-4.96.5342.9%43.3%36.7%11.8%28.6%0.067
CutterFC
8.0%92.62459+10.5-2.86.6042.9%43.3%30.0%23.5%57.1%0.191
SinkerSI
6.7%96.22392+14.0+14.26.740.0%68.0%24.0%50.0%33.3%0.461

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″FC · 19″SI · 17″CH · 20″SL · 23″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 22″FC · 29″SI · 24″CH · 38″SL · 45″CU · 58″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.21′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLCUFCSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLCUFCSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLCUFCSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.