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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

OF·MIL
Compare
Compare
PA
590
H
148
HR
21
AVG
.269
xwOBA
.308
PPG
2.71
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202631142.302.362.481.179.34026.1%8.5%17.6%45862.77—
2025143590.269
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
17
.308
xBA
28
.241
xSLG
.310
.462
.193
.308
20.5%
5.1%
15.4%
21
21
388
2.71
—
2024151573.275.328.464.189.33121.1%6.8%14.3%21253812.52—
37
.421
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
27
88.8
Median EV
40
92.6
90th % EV
55
105.9
Barrel %
50
9.7
Hard-Hit %
34
42.3
Sweet-Spot %
50
35.9
Bat Speed
Avg
67
71.6
Median
74
73.5
90th %
69
78.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
7
36.8
Whiff %
37
23.7
K %
49
20.5
BB %
8
5.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
91
≈ 19th pctl
Chase cost
-46.0r
469 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.1r
267 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
53.3%
2,111 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.85
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12+33%6+29%7+18%11+25%82+40%15+35%17+25%20+19%27+68%31+44%16+0%8+58%12-4%27-16%44-20%64-3%34+42%26+7%15+28%25+15%41-35%72-28%67-33%46+52%23+18%11+31%29+31%42+16%51+4%55+44%16+27%155+11%9+33%6+8%12514CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000