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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #14 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom · #14
V⁻ —VORP 75V⁺ —
Jacob deGrom

Jacob deGrom

SP·TEX
Compare
Compare
BF
285
K %
29.5%
BB %
5.3%
xwOBA
.303
PTS
181
PPG
13.92
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919103.075003.443.2828.1%5.9%22.3%————24813.04
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
92
97.1
FB Spin
90
2469
Extension
2026
13
13
70.7
5
4
0
0
3.18
3.75
29.5%
5.3%
24.2%
.303
.247
86.9%
30.6%
181
13.92
20253131176.7129003.063.6727.6%5.5%22.1%.287.23082.8%38.1%44814.45
20243310.700001.692.2631.8%2.3%29.5%.249.37094.8%39.3%3010.00
20237734.020002.381.3939.1%3.5%35.6%.210.26866.1%37.9%11816.86
2022141475.374002.992.0442.7%3.3%39.4%.240.27876.1%40.3%25117.93
2021161696.782001.021.2245.1%3.4%41.7%.192.21588.5%44.6%39824.88
2020121268.042002.382.1738.7%6.7%32.0%.256.28879.7%42.5%21718.08
20193433208.0128002.382.5131.6%5.5%26.1%.251.27881.8%45.2%59717.56
20183433221.0109001.711.9632.2%5.5%26.7%.245.27782.2%47.8%66419.53
20173232204.31510003.523.4928.9%7.1%21.8%.276.30276.6%47.6%48215.06
65
6.61
Results
xwOBA
74
.303
Barrel %
20
10.4
Hard-Hit %
15
44.8
K %
95
29.5
BB %
91
5.3
Chase %
90
34.5
Whiff %
98
32.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
132
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
116
if they swing
Command+
115
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
120
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.1%
24 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.023
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.019 better than avg · 117 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.008
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.038 better than avg · 20 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 338 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
45.9%97.02459+17.1+8.06.5723.3%63.2%29.7%29.8%22.5%0.343
SliderSL
32.0%91.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCHCUSI
Usage46%32%16%4%2%
MPH97.091.389.880.896.3
RHP Avg95.086.786.980.294.3
2643
+3.3
-4.9
6.46
36.2%
42.6%
31.5%
38.7%
20.3%
0.177
ChangeupCH
16.0%89.81641+1.5+13.86.6221.7%42.6%20.4%22.6%21.4%0.179
CurveballCU
4.1%80.82758-5.5-11.86.4925.0%42.9%35.7%25.0%25.0%0.002
SinkerSI
2.1%96.32299+11.3+15.06.5716.7%100.0%14.3%——0.455

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″SI · 18″CU · 23″CH · 23″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″SI · 23″CU · 59″CH · 38″SL · 34″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.02′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCHCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCHCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCHCUSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.