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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #27 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz · #27
V⁻ —VORP 2V⁺ —
Jacob Latz

Jacob Latz

SP / RP·TEX
Compare
Compare
BF
116
K %
28.4%
BB %
6.0%
xwOBA
.242
PTS
156
PPG
6.24
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj43149.0111243.984.0323.2%10.5%12.7%————1563.63
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

116 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
60
94.3
FB Spin
59
2294
2026
25
1
32.0
2
1
10
2
1.69
2.51
28.4%
6.0%
22.4%
.242
.149
81.4%
42.1%
156
6.24
202533885.720122.843.6821.8%10.6%11.2%.318.27281.1%37.9%1925.82
202447144.723093.634.9420.8%14.1%6.7%.350.27380.2%35.5%851.81
2023306.300000.002.9422.7%13.6%9.1%.233.071100.0%35.7%206.67
2021114.701005.799.7421.1%0.0%21.1%.290.167250.0%20.0%22.00
Extension
53
6.54
Results
xwOBA
99
.242
Barrel %
76
6.6
Hard-Hit %
27
43.4
K %
93
28.4
BB %
84
6.0
Chase %
78
32.9
Whiff %
88
27.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
106
≈ 73th pctl
Stuff+
107
if they swing
Command+
90
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
112
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.6%
21 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.005 better than avg · 77 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.027
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.003 better than avg · 25 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 278 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
50.3%93.12209+19.1+8.66.569.8%61.0%25.0%23.1%17.9%0.183
SliderSL
28.6%85.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE53°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCHCU
Usage50%29%12%9%
MPH93.185.083.679.0
LHP Avg93.284.784.679.0
2488
+2.9
-6.4
6.48
44.4%
43.9%
38.6%
37.5%
22.2%
0.331
ChangeupCH
12.1%83.61970+11.6+15.46.4533.3%25.0%20.8%27.8%0.0%0.172
CurveballCU
9.0%79.02679-12.5-5.16.440.0%27.8%16.7%7.7%16.7%0.037

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″CH · 21″SL · 25″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″CH · 50″SL · 48″CU · 62″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.22′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCHCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCHCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCHCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.