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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #147 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Jacob Lopez
Jacob Lopez · #60
V⁻ —VORP -53V⁺ —
Jacob Lopez

Jacob Lopez

SP·ATH
Compare
Compare
BF
243
K %
15.6%
BB %
13.6%
xwOBA
.311
PTS
28
PPG
2.33
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj231276.046004.754.6421.4%10.2%11.2%————1034.48
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
1
89.1
FB Spin
21
2165
Extension
2026
12
10
50.7
4
3
0
1
6.75
6.38
15.6%
13.6%
2.0%
.311
.304
69.6%
33.1%
28
2.33
2025211792.777004.084.2228.2%9.2%19.0%.298.29275.2%28.6%1899.00
20244110.300005.236.6817.4%15.2%2.2%.304.11162.5%17.2%153.75
20235113.310104.053.0214.8%3.7%11.1%.361.33365.0%35.7%285.60
91
6.90
Results
xwOBA
64
.311
Barrel %
94
4.7
Hard-Hit %
95
31.4
K %
9
15.6
BB %
1
13.6
Chase %
4
24.5
Whiff %
11
17.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
91
≈ 18th pctl
Stuff+
98
if they swing
Command+
89
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.8%
43 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.059
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.017 worse than avg · 105 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.004
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.025 better than avg · 46 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 437 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
31.9%90.42130+12.8+13.47.0212.2%52.6%23.3%20.0%9.1%0.275
SliderSL
23.4%77.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE22°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLFCCHSI
Usage32%23%21%12%12%
MPH90.477.786.582.989.8
LHP Avg93.284.788.184.693.0
2409
+2.0
-9.4
6.68
33.3%
38.8%
22.4%
25.0%
29.0%
0.229
CutterFC
20.6%86.52172+8.7-0.56.9121.9%49.3%24.0%18.4%21.4%0.401
ChangeupCH
12.1%82.92068+4.4+18.26.8436.8%47.7%27.3%21.7%22.2%0.396
SinkerSI
12.1%89.82042+7.4+18.27.1011.8%52.3%22.7%14.3%0.0%0.456

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 20″FF · 19″SI · 19″CH · 19″SL · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 47″FF · 37″SI · 40″CH · 55″SL · 69″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.19′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLFCCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLFCCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLFCCHSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.