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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #2 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski · #2
V⁻ —VORP 149V⁺ —
Jacob Misiorowski

Jacob Misiorowski

SP·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
302
K %
38.4%
BB %
7.3%
xwOBA
.237
PTS
286
PPG
22.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj231898.074003.353.2930.6%10.6%20.0%————24510.63
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
99
99.9
FB Spin
99
2608
Extension
2026
13
13
78.0
7
2
0
0
1.50
1.91
38.4%
7.3%
31.1%
.237
.242
83.9%
44.6%
286
22.00
2025191479.074013.873.3832.0%11.0%21.0%.289.28770.7%34.9%19610.32
99
7.48
Results
xwOBA
99
.237
Barrel %
99
2.5
Hard-Hit %
94
31.8
K %
99
38.4
BB %
62
7.3
Chase %
49
30.7
Whiff %
99
34.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
113
≈ 91th pctl
Stuff+
128
if they swing
Command+
94
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
130
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
4.9%
22 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 131 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.023
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.006 better than avg · 36 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 449 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
60.5%98.52556+16.2+10.87.4337.7%45.2%35.3%35.5%34.4%0.318
SliderSL
20.3%93.82517

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCUCH
Usage61%20%16%3%
MPH98.593.886.592.2
RHP Avg95.086.780.286.9
+7.5
-1.6
7.36
25.6%
51.4%
27.0%
30.6%
12.5%
0.201
CurveballCU
15.9%86.52151-7.1-6.27.0147.6%37.9%36.2%27.8%30.8%0.210
ChangeupCH
3.3%92.22085+6.5+17.77.400.0%50.0%25.0%0.0%66.7%0.254

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SL · 21″CH · 22″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 10″SL · 26″CH · 30″CU · 44″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.15′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCUCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCUCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCUCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.