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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B / OF·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
20
K %
5.0%
BB %
20.0%
xwOBA
.428
PTS
0
PPG
0.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2025505.000003.605.703.4%10.3%-6.9%.398.34869.2%26.1%10.20
2024 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

20 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
81.8
FB Spin
0
1729
2024
4
0
4.0
0
0
0
0
4.50
5.60
5.0%
20.0%
-15.0%
.428
.333
77.8%
13.3%
0
0.00
Extension
0
3.99
Results
xwOBA
0
.428
Barrel %
0
20.0
Hard-Hit %
38
40.0
K %
0
5.0
BB %
0
20.0
Chase %
1
22.9
Whiff %
0
12.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-76
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
-7
if they swing
Command+
34
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
-60
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
64.0%
48 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.101
RV per pitch · league 0.046
+0.055 worse than avg · 14 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.133
RV per pitch · league 0.031
+0.102 worse than avg · 9 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 75 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
OtherFA
88.0%65.21628+17.0+3.33.9514.3%37.9%16.7%24.4%9.1%0.443
EephusEP
9.3%54.61565

2024 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE51°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FAEPFF
Usage88%9%3%
MPH65.254.681.8
LHP Avg——93.3
-0.2
-5.3
4.04
0.0%
28.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.066
4-Seam FastballFF
2.7%81.81729+15.9+4.14.850.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%0.476

2024 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 14″FA · 18″EP · 19″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 57″FA · 97″EP · 124″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (5.85′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2024 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FAEPFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FAEPFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FAEPFF

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.