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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #21 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Jake Burger
Jake Burger · #21
V⁻ -48VORP -16V⁺ 14
Jake Burger

Jake Burger

1B·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
255
H
56
HR
10
AVG
.237
xwOBA
.304
PPG
1.88
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj94404.241.293.443.201.32425.0%5.8%19.3%1911972.10—
202664255.237
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
20
.304
xBA
28
.240
xSLG
.291
.415
.178
.304
26.7%
6.7%
20.0%
10
1
120
1.88
—
2025108377.235.270.417.182.32624.7%3.2%21.5%1611791.66—
2024139579.250.303.460.210.34125.9%5.4%20.5%2912882.07—
2023147541.249.311.517.268.35827.5%5.9%21.6%3413102.11—
202257183.250.304.458.208.32730.6%5.5%25.1%80921.61—
20211542.263.333.474.211.35135.7%9.5%26.2%10151.00—
31
.393
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
60
90.2
Median EV
83
95.5
90th % EV
80
107.5
Barrel %
49
8.9
Hard-Hit %
76
47.3
Sweet-Spot %
32
33.7
Bat Speed
Avg
73
72.5
Median
76
74.3
90th %
66
77.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
7
38.5
Whiff %
4
33.0
K %
18
26.7
BB %
15
6.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
77
≈ 1th pctl
Chase cost
-8.4r
74 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.3r
50 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.3%
338 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.47
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
111111+0%8-10%10+44%9+43%7+71%7+33%6+23%13-37%30-15%13-25%12+63%85+62%13+8%24-29%21-32%25-40%1033+20%10+53%15+10%10-20%101+17%614222111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 338