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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #143 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Jake Fraley
Jake Fraley · #60
V⁻ -18VORP -6V⁺ 0
Jake Fraley

Jake Fraley

OF·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
90
H
19
HR
2
AVG
.232
xwOBA
.276
PPG
1.04
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj34148.232.309.353.121.30022.1%9.4%12.7%35631.86—
20262890.232
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

90 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
4
.276
xBA
3
.204
.300
.390
.158
.276
27.8%
8.9%
18.9%
2
3
29
1.04
—
202576218.240.330.380.140.31822.5%11.5%11.0%641191.57—
2024115382.277.332.386.109.29218.3%6.8%11.5%5211901.65—
2023113380.256.340.443.187.32918.7%9.7%9.0%15222582.28—
202278248.258.346.465.207.33721.8%10.5%11.3%1271612.06—
202183265.210.355.369.159.34026.8%17.4%9.4%9141411.70—
2020729.154.241.269.115.20337.9%6.9%31.0%0240.57—
20191541.150.171.200.050.15234.1%0.0%34.1%0010.07—
xSLG
11
.345
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
1
83.9
Median EV
13
88.6
90th % EV
22
102.2
Barrel %
49
8.8
Hard-Hit %
1
21.1
Sweet-Spot %
97
45.6
Bat Speed
Avg
40
69.6
Median
36
70.9
90th %
62
77.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
92
21.7
Whiff %
62
19.4
K %
16
27.8
BB %
44
8.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
113
≈ 89th pctl
Chase cost
-2.9r
31 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.7r
34 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.0%
228 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.01
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11241131-12%8+29%7+9%11+43%7+29%71+14%7-14%7-42%12-17%18+16%19+67%6+50%10-36%14-43%14-15%13-27%11314+17%64422CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 228