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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jake Fraley

Jake Fraley

OF·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
380
H
86
HR
15
AVG
.256
xwOBA
.329
PPG
2.28
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20262890.232.300.390.158.27627.8%8.9%18.9%23291.04—
202576218.240
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

380 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
38
.329
xBA
47
.255
.330
.380
.140
.318
22.5%
11.5%
11.0%
6
4
119
1.57
—
2024115382.277.332.386.109.29218.3%6.8%11.5%5211901.65—
2023113380.256.340.443.187.32918.7%9.7%9.0%15222582.28—
202278248.258.346.465.207.33721.8%10.5%11.3%1271612.06—
202183265.210.355.369.159.34026.8%17.4%9.4%9141411.70—
2020729.154.241.269.115.20337.9%6.9%31.0%0240.57—
20191541.150.171.200.050.15234.1%0.0%34.1%0010.07—
xSLG
26
.404
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
2
84.6
Median EV
0
85.8
90th % EV
14
102.7
Barrel %
24
6.4
Hard-Hit %
8
30.8
Sweet-Spot %
78
38.3
Bat Speed
Avg
50
70.4
Median
42
71.3
90th %
40
76.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
33
30.2
Whiff %
44
22.7
K %
62
18.7
BB %
58
9.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
105
≈ 70th pctl
Chase cost
-26.1r
265 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-7.2r
141 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.0%
1,420 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.35
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
223+15%13+11%9+0%61+38%8+5%20+19%42+28%39+12%26+18%172+35%23+14%51-17%52-15%68-10%42+60%35+7%15+38%32-2%56-25%55-24%54-10%51+61%23+33%9+47%19+38%24+16%25+26%19+42%2452+14%7+43%7+13%85512CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000