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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #106 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Jake Irvin
Jake Irvin · #60
V⁻ —VORP -25V⁺ —
Jake Irvin

Jake Irvin

SP·WSN
Compare
Compare
BF
228
K %
25.4%
BB %
9.6%
xwOBA
.351
PTS
73
PPG
6.64
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181062.034004.634.4219.0%8.0%11.0%————844.68
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
23
91.7
FB Spin
67
2326
Extension
2026
11
11
51.7
2
4
0
0
5.23
4.24
25.4%
9.6%
15.8%
.351
.304
63.4%
40.1%
73
6.64
20253333180.0913005.705.6015.7%7.9%7.8%.360.28268.2%43.5%1594.82
20243434193.71014004.284.3220.3%6.8%13.5%.325.26770.7%44.7%3089.06
20232424121.037004.615.1518.7%10.2%8.5%.344.28175.0%42.5%1466.08
97
7.19
Results
xwOBA
18
.351
Barrel %
6
12.0
Hard-Hit %
9
45.8
K %
76
25.4
BB %
23
9.6
Chase %
6
25.0
Whiff %
60
23.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
103
≈ 63th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
102
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
97
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.7%
35 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 120 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.017 worse than avg · 25 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 362 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
31.4%93.02357+14.3+8.07.3621.0%61.4%29.8%29.5%18.0%0.344
SinkerSI
18.7%92.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE26°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSICUFCSLCH
Usage31%19%18%16%9%7%
MPH93.092.277.488.081.585.2
RHP Avg95.094.380.289.886.786.9
2299
+7.2
+15.1
7.30
8.3%
58.8%
30.9%
14.3%
0.0%
0.454
CurveballCU
18.5%77.42529-4.2-16.67.1636.8%34.3%25.4%11.4%10.0%0.418
CutterFC
15.7%88.02448+9.2-3.67.2021.9%49.1%21.1%31.0%35.7%0.336
SliderSL
9.1%81.52519+6.8-12.97.1521.4%36.4%24.2%28.6%15.4%0.357
ChangeupCH
6.6%85.22169+5.2+15.77.1240.0%37.5%33.3%33.3%27.3%0.034

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FC · 19″SL · 22″SI · 19″CU · 23″CH · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″FC · 41″SL · 59″SI · 33″CU · 68″CH · 51″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.09′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSICUFCSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSICUFCSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSICUFCSLCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.