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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

OF·COL
Compare
Compare
PA
312
H
67
HR
2
AVG
.243
xwOBA
.295
PPG
1.54
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202653188.282.330.453.171.30819.7%5.9%13.8%4101112.09—
202569223.203
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

312 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
5
.295
xBA
19
.240
.247
.343
.140
.290
17.9%
4.5%
13.4%
4
6
95
1.38
—
2024133495.285.351.400.115.31715.8%6.3%9.5%8232882.17—
202396312.243.319.326.083.29519.9%8.3%11.6%2281481.54—
2022106356.282.341.424.142.30821.3%6.5%14.8%8262242.11—
20212470.220.333.373.153.25332.9%11.4%21.5%24321.33—
xSLG
1
.334
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
1
83.0
Median EV
3
87.6
90th % EV
3
99.2
Barrel %
3
2.3
Hard-Hit %
1
23.7
Sweet-Spot %
14
32.4
Bat Speed
Avg
6
65.9
Median
15
68.6
90th %
16
74.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
29
30.9
Whiff %
65
19.4
K %
53
19.9
BB %
39
8.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 35th pctl
Chase cost
-21.3r
220 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-9.3r
145 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.4%
1,140 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.68
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
4+13%8+22%9+27%11+10%10+0%111+8%12+15%27+26%35+6%36+30%33+22%18+29%7+48%29+25%65-21%61-21%71-10%39+44%36+25%12+29%34-5%41-36%61-22%58-16%44+48%23+11%9+36%11+33%21+3%30+9%22+50%124235+0%6+14%7111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000