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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

OF·COL
Compare
Compare
PA
495
H
126
HR
8
AVG
.285
xwOBA
.317
PPG
2.17
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202653193.282.332.448.166.31119.7%6.2%13.5%4101112.09—
202569223.203
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

495 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
23
.317
xBA
60
.256
.247
.343
.140
.290
17.9%
4.5%
13.4%
4
6
95
1.38
—
2024133495.285.351.400.115.31715.8%6.3%9.5%8232882.17—
202396312.243.319.326.083.29519.9%8.3%11.6%2281481.54—
2022106356.282.341.424.142.30821.3%6.5%14.8%8262242.11—
20212470.220.333.373.153.25332.9%11.4%21.5%24321.33—
xSLG
6
.355
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
1
81.8
Median EV
1
85.7
90th % EV
2
100.0
Barrel %
5
2.7
Hard-Hit %
2
24.5
Sweet-Spot %
11
31.7
Bat Speed
Avg
5
65.0
Median
5
66.7
90th %
5
71.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
31
30.3
Whiff %
82
16.6
K %
82
15.8
BB %
15
6.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
95
≈ 32th pctl
Chase cost
-32.6r
332 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-15.7r
274 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.9%
1,805 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.67
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
4+14%7+11%9+29%7+9%1135+0%12+22%37+18%40+28%40+35%31+70%104+36%28-7%44-35%77-29%87-9%44+46%28+63%8+42%33+13%46-26%57-26%58-20%40+45%22+83%6+19%16+36%11+27%26+15%20+47%19+10%10535+14%73431CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000