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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #59 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy · #59
V⁻ -19VORP 23V⁺ 27
Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

OF·COL
Compare
Compare
PA
188
H
48
HR
4
AVG
.282
xwOBA
.308
PPG
2.09
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj70303.267.324.395.128.32217.1%6.8%10.3%5141602.28—
202653188.282
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

188 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
26
.308
xBA
47
.255
.330
.453
.171
.308
19.7%
5.9%
13.8%
4
10
111
2.09
—
202569223.203.247.343.140.29017.9%4.5%13.4%46951.38—
2024133495.285.351.400.115.31715.8%6.3%9.5%8232882.17—
202396312.243.319.326.083.29519.9%8.3%11.6%2281481.54—
2022106356.282.341.424.142.30821.3%6.5%14.8%8262242.11—
20212470.220.333.373.153.25332.9%11.4%21.5%24321.33—
xSLG
30
.391
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
1
81.9
Median EV
1
84.2
90th % EV
14
101.5
Barrel %
23
5.8
Hard-Hit %
3
24.5
Sweet-Spot %
62
37.4
Bat Speed
Avg
33
68.9
Median
35
70.7
90th %
37
75.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
28
33.1
Whiff %
56
20.3
K %
51
19.7
BB %
12
5.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 63th pctl
Chase cost
-3.5r
44 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.1r
25 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
54.9%
193 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.40
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
244+17%6453+9%11345-31%13-21%14-56%942+45%11+33%9-28%18-25%8-17%6415325411212CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 193