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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #83 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Janson Junk
Janson Junk · #60
V⁻ —VORP -12V⁺ —
Janson Junk

Janson Junk

SP·MIA
Compare
Compare
BF
256
K %
16.8%
BB %
5.1%
xwOBA
.312
PTS
71
PPG
6.45
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj221594.056004.464.1416.8%5.4%11.3%————1295.87
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
59
94.2
FB Spin
62
2304
Extension
2026
11
11
60.0
3
5
0
0
4.80
4.10
16.8%
5.1%
11.7%
.312
.300
66.4%
45.2%
71
6.45
20252217113.765104.123.1117.2%2.9%14.3%.326.29763.7%41.4%1999.05
2024608.0000014.637.4816.7%8.3%8.4%.420.57659.6%36.1%-20-3.33
2023217.301004.914.3315.2%6.1%9.1%.317.28058.1%60.0%42.00
20225313.311006.082.9529.7%8.1%21.6%.283.34256.8%65.2%183.60
20214416.301003.866.2214.1%2.8%11.3%.371.27873.3%39.0%184.50
33
6.34
Results
xwOBA
63
.312
Barrel %
77
6.6
Hard-Hit %
37
41.6
K %
18
16.8
BB %
93
5.1
Chase %
28
28.5
Whiff %
1
14.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 87th pctl
Stuff+
96
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
92
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
13.0%
53 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 123 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.022
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.007 better than avg · 20 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 408 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
28.8%94.32309+19.3+5.96.348.0%62.1%21.4%10.3%11.8%0.367
SliderSL
26.0%86.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE50°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCHSTCUSI
Usage29%26%20%14%8%3%
MPH94.386.387.179.880.792.9
RHP Avg95.086.786.983.380.294.3
2414
+2.4
-5.7
6.38
20.4%
60.2%
25.8%
29.7%
14.7%
0.253
ChangeupCH
20.1%87.11401+2.5+15.96.3436.7%40.3%27.8%25.6%19.0%0.275
SweeperST
14.2%79.82382+1.1-13.66.4512.5%47.1%21.6%29.6%6.3%0.271
CurveballCU
8.1%80.72487-13.5-6.66.3916.7%37.9%20.7%22.2%20.0%0.288
SinkerSI
2.8%92.92135+15.0+12.16.360.0%60.0%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.258

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″SI · 17″ST · 21″CH · 21″SL · 22″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″SI · 29″ST · 63″CH · 44″SL · 46″CU · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.16′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCHSTCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCHSTCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCHSTCUSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.