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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

-500+50+100+150+200
Jarred Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic

OF·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
59
H
12
HR
1
AVG
.226
xwOBA
.368
PPG
0.53
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj15.231.242.312.081.26124.7%4.3%20.4%0011.22—
20261959.226
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

59 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
75
.368
xBA
51
.257
.305
.321
.095
.368
33.9%
10.2%
23.7%
1
0
10
0.53
—
20252765.167.231.300.133.27335.4%7.7%27.7%20110.41—
2024134450.230.287.392.162.31329.6%7.1%22.5%1571761.31—
2023110416.253.329.419.166.33731.7%9.9%21.8%11131731.57—
202269181.141.222.313.172.27533.7%8.8%24.9%76731.06—
202196378.180.265.349.169.31328.0%9.5%18.5%1461551.61—
xSLG
90
.526
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
99
95.5
Median EV
0
—
90th % EV
0
—
Barrel %
99
24.2
Hard-Hit %
95
54.5
Sweet-Spot %
100
48.5
Bat Speed
Avg
66
71.9
Median
0
—
90th %
0
—
Plate Discipline
Chase %
63
27.1
Whiff %
3
33.3
K %
1
33.9
BB %
62
10.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
66
≈ 1th pctl
Chase cost
-1.0r
7 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.3r
5 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
39.4%
33 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.97
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
112121123321131111111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 33