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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jarred Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic

OF·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
416
H
94
HR
11
AVG
.253
xwOBA
.337
PPG
1.57
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20261959.226.305.321.095.36833.9%10.2%23.7%10100.53—
20252765.167
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

416 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
50
.337
xBA
57
.260
.231
.300
.133
.273
35.4%
7.7%
27.7%
2
0
11
0.41
—
2024134450.230.287.392.162.31329.6%7.1%22.5%1571761.31—
2023110416.253.329.419.166.33731.7%9.9%21.8%11131731.57—
202269181.141.222.313.172.27533.7%8.8%24.9%76731.06—
202196378.180.265.349.169.31328.0%9.5%18.5%1461551.61—
xSLG
48
.438
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
70
90.9
Median EV
68
93.5
90th % EV
70
106.6
Barrel %
53
9.5
Hard-Hit %
66
45.5
Sweet-Spot %
94
40.1
Bat Speed
Avg
53
70.5
Median
48
71.5
90th %
41
76.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
41
28.6
Whiff %
8
30.3
K %
2
31.7
BB %
62
9.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
90
≈ 15th pctl
Chase cost
-31.6r
309 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-16.8r
239 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.8%
1,664 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.91
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
3+33%6+25%8+18%11+7%15+0%61+80%10+17%24+26%34+15%48+3%38+20%102+47%32+5%44-37%86-25%75-30%33+56%27+50%10+34%29+8%48-36%53-18%38-8%38+60%20+33%6+19%21+37%19+4%28+13%23+15%134+0%6+0%6+0%7+50%653CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000