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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jarred Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic

OF·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
450
H
95
HR
15
AVG
.230
xwOBA
.313
PPG
1.31
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20261959.226.305.321.095.36833.9%10.2%23.7%10100.53—
20252765.167
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

450 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
19
.313
xBA
24
.238
.231
.300
.133
.273
35.4%
7.7%
27.7%
2
0
11
0.41
—
2024134450.230.287.392.162.31329.6%7.1%22.5%1571761.31—
2023110416.253.329.419.166.33731.7%9.9%21.8%11131731.57—
202269181.141.222.313.172.27533.7%8.8%24.9%76731.06—
202196378.180.265.349.169.31328.0%9.5%18.5%1461551.61—
xSLG
44
.426
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
52
89.6
Median EV
70
93.8
90th % EV
39
104.2
Barrel %
59
9.9
Hard-Hit %
65
45.2
Sweet-Spot %
87
39.9
Bat Speed
Avg
62
71.0
Median
62
72.2
90th %
58
77.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
37
29.6
Whiff %
6
31.2
K %
4
29.6
BB %
28
7.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
92
≈ 21th pctl
Chase cost
-33.6r
310 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-15.4r
236 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
49.8%
1,760 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.78
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
4+0%6+13%15+17%12+0%7+0%103+21%19+30%27+10%48+8%53+7%29+26%19+0%7+34%32+7%46-38%53-24%79-11%65+12%25+33%6+41%37+5%42-30%54-22%49-21%43+40%15+29%7+38%8+20%15+18%22+0%17+33%21+43%75335331CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000