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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

OF·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
363
H
98
HR
8
AVG
.294
xwOBA
.327
PPG
2.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202660265.207.270.384.177.29928.7%6.8%21.9%10111151.92—
2025165697.256
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

363 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
37
.327
xBA
68
.265
.333
.441
.185
.327
24.2%
8.6%
15.6%
16
26
377
2.28
—
2024166737.284.342.490.206.34321.7%7.3%14.4%21344612.78—
2023105363.294.347.480.186.32724.8%6.6%18.2%8242102.00—
202264223.221.284.363.142.28728.3%6.3%22.0%38821.28—
202139112.215.243.336.121.24635.7%3.6%32.1%23350.90—
xSLG
28
.409
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
44
89.4
Median EV
72
93.8
90th % EV
77
107.1
Barrel %
15
5.3
Hard-Hit %
72
46.3
Sweet-Spot %
14
32.4
Bat Speed
Avg
78
72.5
Median
69
73.0
90th %
66
77.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
37
29.7
Whiff %
51
21.5
K %
21
24.8
BB %
25
6.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
99
≈ 45th pctl
Chase cost
-27.0r
259 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-9.4r
173 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.5%
1,409 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.59
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
24+10%10+13%16+0%841+27%11+13%38+27%26+2%54+23%22+17%125+41%27+20%49-27%48-28%80-10%51+44%27+10%10+46%28-2%41-19%54-12%57-4%45+50%22+33%9+23%13+40%20+37%38+20%25+44%16+50%84415+33%623CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000