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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

OF·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
737
H
191
HR
21
AVG
.284
xwOBA
.343
PPG
2.78
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202662278.208.268.376.168.29529.5%6.5%23.0%10111131.82—
2025165697.256
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
65
.343
xBA
65
.259
xSLG
.333
.441
.185
.327
24.2%
8.6%
15.6%
16
26
377
2.28
—
2024166737.284.342.490.206.34321.7%7.3%14.4%21344612.78—
2023105363.294.347.480.186.32724.8%6.6%18.2%8242102.00—
202264223.221.284.363.142.28728.3%6.3%22.0%38821.28—
202139112.215.243.336.121.24635.7%3.6%32.1%23350.90—
54
.445
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
60
90.2
Median EV
66
93.5
90th % EV
74
106.9
Barrel %
53
9.3
Hard-Hit %
58
43.9
Sweet-Spot %
36
34.8
Bat Speed
Avg
73
71.9
Median
71
72.9
90th %
79
78.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
45
28.1
Whiff %
50
21.9
K %
44
21.7
BB %
34
7.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
102
≈ 58th pctl
Chase cost
-52.4r
500 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-18.0r
373 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.4%
2,860 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.46
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+0%8+9%11+0%115+7%1431+21%14+52%21+24%42+13%30+15%34+0%16+13%8+62%21+23%47-21%72-33%58-12%58+54%28+22%9+59%17+16%31-35%52-16%57-16%51+57%37+9%11+47%15+25%24+25%20+20%20+33%21+45%11-11%93+0%63+22%933CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000