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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

OF·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
697
H
159
HR
16
AVG
.256
xwOBA
.327
PPG
2.28
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202660265.207.270.384.177.29928.7%6.8%21.9%10111151.92—
2025165697.256
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
39
.327
xBA
36
.244
xSLG
.333
.441
.185
.327
24.2%
8.6%
15.6%
16
26
377
2.28
—
2024166737.284.342.490.206.34321.7%7.3%14.4%21344612.78—
2023105363.294.347.480.186.32724.8%6.6%18.2%8242102.00—
202264223.221.284.363.142.28728.3%6.3%22.0%38821.28—
202139112.215.243.336.121.24635.7%3.6%32.1%23350.90—
29
.410
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
80
91.6
Median EV
65
93.8
90th % EV
85
108.0
Barrel %
50
9.7
Hard-Hit %
66
46.8
Sweet-Spot %
52
36.0
Bat Speed
Avg
88
73.1
Median
85
74.2
90th %
87
79.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
28
31.1
Whiff %
27
26.2
K %
29
24.2
BB %
47
8.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
93
≈ 23th pctl
Chase cost
-53.7r
555 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-20.5r
385 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.1%
2,652 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.80
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1+22%9+38%8+0%8544+35%17+46%24+35%31+23%30+16%25+15%204+41%22+13%46-43%60-50%72-25%59+43%35+36%11+43%23-5%40-24%49-27%49-29%41+61%23+17%12+24%17+45%22+21%19+27%26+38%26+43%14455+40%10+50%6311CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000