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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jason Heyward

Jason Heyward

H·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
377
H
90
HR
15
AVG
.269
xwOBA
.324
PPG
1.74
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20253696.174.228.267.093.25020.8%6.3%14.5%20381.06—
202487258.211
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

377 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
32
.324
xBA
29
.245
.291
.412
.201
.298
20.5%
8.5%
12.0%
10
5
142
1.63
—
2023131377.269.342.473.204.32417.0%9.0%8.0%1522281.74—
202254151.204.278.277.073.27821.2%7.3%13.9%11460.85—
2021106354.213.280.346.133.29519.2%7.6%11.6%851571.48—
202055182.264.394.453.189.38720.3%16.5%3.8%621091.98—
2019150590.251.344.428.177.32718.6%11.5%7.1%2183292.19—
2018131489.270.336.395.125.32112.3%8.6%3.7%812842.17—
2017138480.259.328.389.130.32114.0%8.5%5.5%1152882.09—
2016162593.230.307.324.094.30215.7%9.1%6.6%7162901.79—
xSLG
28
.409
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
87.7
Median EV
16
90.3
90th % EV
27
104.0
Barrel %
42
8.1
Hard-Hit %
22
37.4
Sweet-Spot %
25
33.7
Bat Speed
Avg
79
72.6
Median
78
73.8
90th %
57
77.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
43
28.4
Whiff %
69
18.8
K %
72
17.0
BB %
49
9.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
101
≈ 54th pctl
Chase cost
-25.7r
273 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-11.6r
213 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.3%
1,489 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.50
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
2+17%6+38%8+0%6+13%852+38%8+54%26+47%34+14%22+20%30+0%9+0%10+54%26+32%41-22%74-42%53-31%42+24%25+14%7+57%28+7%42-32%68-27%56-16%51+45%29+0%8+21%19+35%17+4%24+15%33+12%33+20%103+0%7+0%7+13%8+7%15+0%82CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000