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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #152 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Javier Assad
Javier Assad · #60
V⁻ —VORP -32V⁺ —
Javier Assad

Javier Assad

SP / RP·CHC
Compare
Compare
BF
150
K %
16.0%
BB %
6.0%
xwOBA
.309
PTS
81
PPG
8.10
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj15120.011004.344.4017.7%8.7%9.1%————291.92
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

150 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
24
91.8
FB Spin
6
2075
2026
10
4
38.3
4
1
0
0
3.99
3.99
16.0%
6.0%
10.0%
.309
.232
66.9%
49.1%
81
8.10
20258737.041003.654.2115.0%7.8%7.2%.339.27075.9%46.5%749.25
20243030150.776003.764.5219.3%9.8%9.5%.345.29078.3%43.8%2478.23
20233310112.353133.124.0620.9%9.1%11.8%.331.27682.5%47.3%2387.21
202210839.722002.954.5118.1%12.0%6.1%.332.26583.7%41.4%686.80
Extension
51
6.52
Results
xwOBA
65
.309
Barrel %
96
4.3
Hard-Hit %
3
48.3
K %
13
16.0
BB %
84
6.0
Chase %
1
22.5
Whiff %
0
12.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
107
≈ 77th pctl
Stuff+
93
if they swing
Command+
113
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
90
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
14.2%
30 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.028
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.014 better than avg · 60 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.011 worse than avg · 16 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 212 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
43.2%93.02002+11.5+15.56.507.1%54.3%24.3%15.6%14.3%0.371
CutterFC
22.2%87.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE52°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFCCHFFCUST
Usage43%22%13%9%7%5%
MPH93.087.186.393.378.581.2
RHP Avg94.389.886.995.080.283.3
2193
+4.5
-5.8
6.45
10.5%
52.8%
22.2%
35.3%
0.0%
0.381
ChangeupCH
13.0%86.31555+1.7+13.76.5133.3%19.0%19.0%47.1%18.2%0.405
4-Seam FastballFF
9.3%93.32142+17.3+5.16.370.0%53.3%33.3%28.6%0.0%0.320
CurveballCU
7.4%78.52518-10.6-14.16.480.0%25.0%8.3%22.2%0.0%0.145
SweeperST
4.9%81.22433+2.2-18.36.4925.0%50.0%25.0%50.0%50.0%0.144

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 19″FC · 23″ST · 27″CH · 24″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″SI · 30″FC · 42″ST · 60″CH · 47″CU · 68″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.24′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFCCHFFCUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFCCHFFCUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFCCHFFCUST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.