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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #9 of 61

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. · #9
V⁻ -21VORP 21V⁺ 52
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

2B / 3B·NYY
Compare
Compare
PA
268
H
56
HR
9
AVG
.235
xwOBA
.294
PPG
2.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj89386.238.318.433.194.33326.3%9.8%16.5%17212042.30—
202665268.235
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
11
.294
xBA
6
.211
xSLG
.316
.408
.173
.294
28.4%
10.1%
18.3%
9
18
130
2.00
—
2025142531.242.335.481.239.34727.9%10.9%17.0%31333482.45—
2024163621.256.325.436.180.32224.5%8.5%16.0%24463552.18—
2023101384.249.304.456.207.30730.7%6.8%23.9%19241891.87—
202271241.254.329.535.281.35227.4%8.7%18.7%14131852.61—
2021132507.248.305.425.177.30828.6%6.7%21.9%18262531.92—
20202162.161.242.321.160.26930.6%8.1%22.5%22231.10—
14
.358
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
35
88.8
Median EV
17
89.4
90th % EV
22
102.4
Barrel %
41
8.0
Hard-Hit %
36
39.9
Sweet-Spot %
10
30.7
Bat Speed
Avg
60
71.0
Median
56
72.4
90th %
53
76.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
52
28.5
Whiff %
16
28.8
K %
14
28.4
BB %
59
10.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
95
≈ 31th pctl
Chase cost
-7.1r
60 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.4r
65 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.9%
382 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.73
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2234+0%62+33%6-7%14-11%19+17%12+55%11+13%84+83%12-12%17-36%33-43%30-12%17+33%6+13%8+60%10-17%24-44%16-12%17-11%18+38%81+13%82+0%7+25%823124111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 382