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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #51 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Jeff McNeil
Jeff McNeil · #51
V⁻ -40VORP 23V⁺ -1
Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil

2B / OF·ATH
Compare
Compare
PA
225
H
47
HR
2
AVG
.234
xwOBA
.305
PPG
1.32
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj77333.259.330.385.127.32212.8%8.3%4.4%631782.31—
202662225.234
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
22
.305
xBA
69
.269
xSLG
.306
.308
.074
.305
14.2%
8.0%
6.2%
2
1
82
1.32
—
2025122462.243.338.411.168.33411.9%10.6%1.3%1232652.17—
2024133472.238.310.384.146.29514.4%7.4%7.0%1252471.86—
2023158648.270.335.378.108.29510.0%6.0%4.0%10103522.23—
2022160590.326.385.453.127.32710.3%6.8%3.5%954012.51—
2021126426.251.320.360.109.31613.6%6.8%6.8%732151.71—
202052209.311.388.454.143.34011.5%9.6%1.9%401222.35—
2019138567.318.385.531.213.35113.2%6.2%7.0%2354393.18—
201865248.329.381.471.142.3309.7%5.6%4.1%371612.48—
10
.344
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
13
86.1
Median EV
9
88.1
90th % EV
10
100.6
Barrel %
2
1.2
Hard-Hit %
9
30.8
Sweet-Spot %
77
39.0
Bat Speed
Avg
7
66.3
Median
10
67.7
90th %
8
72.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
36
31.9
Whiff %
86
14.6
K %
83
14.2
BB %
33
8.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 61th pctl
Chase cost
-5.5r
47 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.4r
27 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.6%
285 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.41
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2111313+11%9+30%10+50%8+40%1043+38%8-25%12-21%39-16%19-17%12+29%73+36%11+11%9-11%18-17%12+11%93143+25%8+25%8551212CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 285