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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jesse Winker

Jesse Winker

H·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
509
H
109
HR
14
AVG
.253
xwOBA
.333
PPG
1.97
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20252981.229.316.400.171.28325.9%11.1%14.8%11371.28—
2024159509.253
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

509 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
48
.333
xBA
48
.248
.361
.404
.151
.333
20.8%
12.4%
8.4%
14
15
313
1.97
—
202367197.199.321.247.048.28925.9%13.2%12.7%10691.03—
2022147547.219.346.344.125.34818.8%15.4%3.4%1402491.69—
2021118485.305.394.556.251.38915.5%10.9%4.6%2413883.29—
202057183.255.390.544.289.39725.1%15.3%9.8%1211272.23—
2019119385.268.356.472.204.34915.6%9.9%5.7%1602562.15—
201892334.299.407.431.132.37213.8%14.7%-0.9%712102.28—
201754137.298.375.529.231.35717.5%10.9%6.6%711001.85—
xSLG
22
.395
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
87.8
Median EV
18
90.4
90th % EV
22
102.9
Barrel %
38
7.6
Hard-Hit %
26
37.4
Sweet-Spot %
4
30.1
Bat Speed
Avg
17
67.7
Median
15
69.0
90th %
16
74.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
97
19.0
Whiff %
74
18.5
K %
51
20.8
BB %
96
12.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
114
≈ 92th pctl
Chase cost
-24.1r
254 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.4r
315 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.3%
2,091 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.08
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
35+0%7+0%95-14%713+25%12-6%33-3%33+4%24+0%28+0%11+39%18+7%41-26%68-19%80-45%38+6%36+5%22+26%19+5%44-26%50-17%71-2%50+38%24+0%17+23%13+33%21+25%24+19%36+30%20+10%10+0%63145+11%91CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000