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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #22 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Jesús Luzardo
Jesús Luzardo · #22
V⁻ —VORP 57V⁺ —
Jesús Luzardo

Jesús Luzardo

SP·PHI
Compare
Compare
BF
313
K %
25.6%
BB %
6.7%
xwOBA
.295
PTS
126
PPG
9.69
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2121120.086003.483.3026.7%7.5%19.3%————27112.89
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
90
96.7
FB Spin
43
2244
Extension
2026
13
13
73.0
4
4
0
0
4.68
3.40
25.6%
6.7%
18.9%
.295
.343
69.4%
50.0%
126
9.69
20253534195.7159004.052.8628.5%7.5%21.0%.286.32167.1%42.7%43512.43
2024121266.736005.004.2021.1%8.0%13.1%.331.28466.3%38.5%867.17
20233535192.71012003.643.2628.1%7.4%20.7%.308.31473.6%41.1%40011.43
20222121112.048003.053.1329.9%8.7%21.2%.292.25574.1%41.2%25412.10
2021261999.769016.325.2822.4%11.0%11.4%.350.31966.4%39.4%893.42
2020141166.733004.594.6523.7%6.8%16.9%.320.30978.3%47.9%1107.86
20197015.000221.202.5034.8%6.5%28.3%.228.16194.3%42.3%649.14
2
5.66
Results
xwOBA
79
.295
Barrel %
69
6.8
Hard-Hit %
99
29.6
K %
79
25.6
BB %
77
6.7
Chase %
88
34.2
Whiff %
94
29.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
101
≈ 56th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
92
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
111
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.3%
39 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.002 worse than avg · 137 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.004
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.033 better than avg · 29 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 469 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SweeperST
36.6%86.82330-1.2-8.85.5949.0%42.1%42.1%32.1%31.4%0.247
4-Seam FastballFF
24.1%97.32256

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE32°100 PITCHSAMPLE
STFFCHSI
Usage37%24%20%19%
MPH86.897.386.696.3
LHP Avg81.093.284.693.0
+13.6
+12.1
5.72
22.9%
39.1%
22.8%
41.1%
21.1%
0.285
ChangeupCH
20.2%86.61639+0.7+15.35.7243.9%39.0%35.1%40.4%23.1%0.330
SinkerSI
19.1%96.32245+5.6+18.25.7210.8%58.9%27.4%40.0%0.0%0.368

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″CH · 22″SI · 23″ST · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″CH · 48″SI · 25″ST · 46″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.20′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
STFFCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
STFFCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
STFFCHSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.