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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #3 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran · #3
V⁻ —VORP 92V⁺ —
Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran

RP·PHI
Compare
Compare
BF
81
K %
40.7%
BB %
6.2%
xwOBA
.239
PTS
137
PPG
5.96
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj44044.0622012.612.5229.7%7.9%21.8%————2345.31
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

81 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
99
98.9
FB Spin
1
1911
2026
23
0
21.7
1
3
16
0
2.08
1.35
40.7%
6.2%
34.5%
.239
.333
76.5%
58.1%
137
5.96
202577075.7763211.902.2527.9%6.6%21.3%.254.30582.3%65.4%3694.79
202458054.3692373.642.7928.9%6.6%22.3%.269.32161.5%61.7%2364.07
202365069.3362912.212.9432.9%9.8%23.1%.259.27676.5%66.2%3224.95
202261072.7248181.732.3733.3%6.0%27.3%.239.28389.6%61.1%2854.67
Extension
10
5.95
Results
xwOBA
99
.239
Barrel %
67
7.0
Hard-Hit %
3
48.8
K %
100
40.7
BB %
83
6.2
Chase %
90
34.4
Whiff %
100
36.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
106
≈ 73th pctl
Stuff+
123
if they swing
Command+
110
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
118
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.9%
7 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.021
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.022 better than avg · 27 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.060
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.030 worse than avg · 11 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 119 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
52.1%97.61772+4.7+16.25.9231.0%40.0%26.0%40.0%100.0%0.339
4-Seam FastballFF
19.8%99.82032

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFFKCSTFS
Usage52%20%13%8%7%
MPH97.699.888.087.189.4
RHP Avg94.395.083.083.386.7
+13.3
+14.0
5.91
16.7%
63.2%
26.3%
42.9%
22.2%
0.275
Knuckle CurveKC
12.5%88.02704-8.5-1.95.7375.0%8.3%25.0%27.3%20.0%0.000
SweeperST
8.3%87.12605-1.6-10.15.75100.0%12.5%62.5%42.9%75.0%0.000
Split-FingerFS
7.3%89.4890+1.0+11.36.0425.0%28.6%14.3%40.0%20.0%0.013

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″ST · 27″FS · 25″SI · 26″KC · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 14″ST · 41″FS · 22″SI · 20″KC · 42″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.30′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFFKCSTFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFFKCSTFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFFKCSTFS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.